Snake’s Take: The Kuroda Factor

Whether you realize it or not, the Dodgers do not have that great of a starting pitching staff. With a possible projected lineup that looks as follows: Penny, Lowe, Schmidt, Billingsley and Loaiza, the situation could go south and fast. Penny and Billingsley are the only true solid pitchers in the rotation. Lowe is quite inconsistent and Loaiza is a home run waiting to happen. It is only natural that the Dodgers are pursuing some of the top notch players via trade or free agency to help help out in the area. One of the areas has been with a Japanese Gentleman by the name of Hiroki Kuroda. It has been rumored, according to Yahoo Sports, that the Dodgers have been eying Kuroda as a person to help fill that void. Sure it looks as if he could possibly be the next Dice K right? Well maybe, but don’t let the media pull this lie right out of their back pocket this time. East Asia has yet to produce a star starting pitcher so why should the Dodgers pursue Kuroda? Let me guess you don’t agree? You say what about Dice K … hello? are you brain dead Snake? He was a great pitcher! I say Negative! Let’s see what Dice K did in reality.

Dice K, the Japanese phenom, came to Boston last year. Indeed I am a huge Dice K fan but it wasn’t until recently I realized how average of a season he had. The first argument I have is with the ERA. In Daisuke Matsuzaka’s Earned Run Average he had a 4.40. Sure it isn’t that bad but it isn’t anywhere near the league leading 2.54 held by Jake Peavy. But ok he isn’t the best but still good right? WRONG! The league average ERA was 4.47. That is only a 0.07 average better than the league average. Now he did have an excellent total amount of strike outs. I have no argument here other than, it doesn’t matter if you get a strikeout or not, as long as you can get the outs to have a low ERA is all that matters to the team. What about with hitters in scoring position? Quite average as well. Dice K had a 1.32 WHIP and the league average was a 1.41. Sure Dice K had 15 wins but also 12 losses. Dice K is a quality pitcher but after his first few games he was plain average.

Now lets compare Kuroda and Matsuzaka in Japan. Kuroda in 11 years with the Hiroshima Carp, he has had an average of 3.69 ERA, 114.2 K’s, 9 Wins, 8.1 Losses. When Matsuzaka was in Japan, with the Seibu Lions, he averaged the following: 2.95 ERA, 169.4 K’s, 13.5 Wins, and 7.5 Losses. Matsuzaka statistically has more wins and strikeouts in 8 years in Japan versus Kuroda in 8 years.

Here is an attempt at a chart to help the comparison visually:

Hiroki Kuroda [11 Seasons] -(STAT)- Daisuke Matsuzaka [8 Seasons]

3.69 -(Average ERA Per Season)- 2.95

114.2 -(Average Strikeouts per season)- 169.4

9.0 -(Average Wins per season)- 13.5

8.1 -(Average Losses per season)- 7.5

If Daisuke Matsuzaka was the phenom to come over from Japan and is quite average then Kuroda is going to be average at best. Would he better than Loaiza? Probably so, but we shouldn’t invest a ton of money into an average at best player.

My Final take is that the Dodgers should just avoid this guy in the off season. Let some other team come by and become disappointed with him. According to CBS2.com the Dodgers have been rumored to be in the hunt for Johan Santana in a deal for OF Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw. The Dodgers should do the trade that would give them quite a stunning rotation. Can you imagine this:

1. Johan Santana
2. Brad Penny
3. Derek Lowe
4. Jason Schmidt
5. Chad Billingsley

One of the Dodgers best pitchers from the 07 season would be their fifth starter. There are some fairly poor teams who would kill to have Billingsley on their team either there 1, 2, or 3 starter in the rotation, and Billingsleywould be bringing up the rear. Go after Santana not Kuroda.